A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
